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Written by Freddie Dawson | ECigIntelligence
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a significant one for vaping. ECigIntelligence predicts several long-anticipated policy developments will start to emerge as regulators attempt to catch up to the rapidly evolving vaping market.
One big question going into the year, however, is just how many markets will implement long-discussed flavour bans. In Canada – the fifth largest vaping market globally by ECigIntelligence’s estimates – a proposal by former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s government led by the Liberal Party was meant to restrict vaping flavours and ban them from using sweeteners.
It was intended to be implemented before the 2025 national elections, ECigIntelligence believed. But Trudeau’s resignation complicates things and if – as expected – the Liberal Party loses the upcoming election, the incoming government will be significantly more pro-consumer choice, ECigIntelligence predicts.
In the EU, updates of the TPD and TED are up in the air
Another established market that will at least debate introducing a flavour ban is the European Union, with officials there in line to renew both the EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and Tobacco Excise Directive (TED).
Both the timetable and content of the TPD and TED are much more up in the air at present. A parliamentary position is meant to be established this year on the third revision of the TPD (TPD3), and a trialogue between the European Parliament, European Commission and European Council is supposed to begin. However, given previous delays, there is no guarantee that either will happen in 2025. It could be as late as 2029 by the time the TPD3 comes into force if delays do hamper proceedings.
It is also unclear what will make it into the final version. It is likely a flavour ban will be proposed at some point along the way. But ECigIntelligence believes it unlikely as things stand that it will be part of the revision that goes into force.
Other potential areas of regulation that could occur are rules for nicotine-free vaping products for the first time, vaping taxes and plain packaging.
Overall, the European Commission is likely to adopt a strict position on nicotine alternatives – a sort of restriction wish list – which will then be up to the European Parliament to water down when it is presented to the governing body – a crucial role to play as happened in the TPD2 revision process.
Flavour bans could come to fruition around Europe
Other jurisdictions are also looking at flavour bans both within and outside the EU. For instance, Ireland, Spain and Slovakia are all considering their own flavour bans.
In Slovakia, an amendment is likely as it was proposed by the Smer-SD, the main governing party. It would ban all flavours in e-liquids save for menthol, mint and tobacco.
In Spain and Ireland, bills covering multiple aspects of e-cigarette regulation are under consideration in 2025 and likely to pass. For Ireland, the ban would limit flavours in nicotine vaping products to tobacco only. There are issues on how enforcement would work, given the open border with Northern Ireland.
Both Ireland and Spain will also be looking to impose additional tax on vaping products in 2025. In Ireland it will be the introduction of an excise duty on e-liquids for the first time. The proposal is for them to be taxed at €0.50 per ml regardless of nicotine level – an imposition that will considerably raise their sales price.
The bill was introduced before the Irish government broke up for elections. But given that the make-up of the legislature is largely in line with the previous division, it seems likely the new coalition, once formed, will once again resume where it left off.
In Spain, a bill will look to impose a tax on e-liquids and other related products as part of a wider attempt to establish taxes on otherwise previously under-taxed areas. The reform package aims to implement an excise duty of €0.15 per ml for e-liquids whose nicotine concentration is less than 15 mg, and of €0.20 per ml if the nicotine concentration is 15 mg or more.
A further duty on e-liquids is expected in Malta, where the 2025 budget is proposing taxing nicotine-containing and nicotine-free e-cigarettes and refill containers at a rate of €0.13 per ml. Although the rate is relatively moderate, the impact on the industry will be high because vaping products have not been taxed previously. The bill was presented by the minister of finance and has undergone its first reading, making it probable that it will pass.
Tax will also be a discussion at the wider EU level. ECigIntelligence predicts novel nicotine products will be included in the TED revision. The TED is a European Council directive, which means it will come from and be approved by the Council itself, with the European Parliament having only a consultative role. However, it is uncertain just how long it will take for the European Commission to formulate a proposal and for the Council to discuss and approve it.
Watch for first-time e-liquid taxing in the UK
Outside the EU, the UK intends to apply a duty to e-liquids in 2025 for the first time. The Labour government has proposed creating a brand-new tax category for vaping products and introducing a flat tax on e-liquids of £0.22 per ml as well as a stamp duty scheme.
And like Ireland and Spain, a tax forms only part of a wider range of regulatory measures intended for the nicotine sector in the UK. Perhaps the next biggest item to watch out for in 2025 is also perhaps the most controversial: the UK generational ban on tobacco and herbal smoking products, in which anyone born on or after 1st January 2009 will no longer be able to buy tobacco products no matter the age they reach. Its passage is not a certainty. So far, all attempts to enact a generational ban have fallen flat. But the reasons for that have differed each time.
The UK’s Labour government certainly seems to have the appetite to pass it. And following the party’s July 2024 election win, it has the numbers. The UK Tobacco and Vapes Bill was also originally a Conservative Party proposal, which it seems would mean current opposition to it would be light. However, the party has veered further right, and a large number of its members of Parliament (MPs) appear to more vocally oppose the measure on grounds of individual freedom. The vast majority of these same MPs also opposed the measure when it was a Tory proposal but were perhaps quieter to avoid getting chastised by their own party.
Further to the generational ban, the UK also intends to enact a ban on disposables as well as various other limitations on advertising and display. These include packaging restrictions, a licensing scheme for retail, a vending machine ban for vaping products and further restrictions on their public use. Powers to regulate flavours could also be granted. Altogether there is a widely impacting set of incoming restrictions and controls.
More enforcement in the US, disposables bans in Ireland and Slovakia
Ireland will also likely again state its intentions to ban disposables. This was a promise made during the previous government and will almost certainly carry over to the new coalition. The government has been faced with other priorities, though, and the ban advanced little beyond the stated intention. It is difficult to see that circumstance changing, putting some question over whether the Irish disposables ban will actually happen in 2025.
In the US, it is similarly unclear whether a promised change in enforcement priorities will take place. A bill was proposed to reverse the previous priority enforcement note for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) tasking it to specifically target cartridge products like Juul, as these were considered the main youth vaping threat at the time.
Some believe it was this enforcement that allowed disposable vapes to spring up and fill the gap in the market, and that the bill would direct the FDA to amend its compliance policy to prioritise enforcement against disposables instead. However, given the change in government, it is unclear whether this will continue to be enough of a priority to be pushed through in 2025.
On firmer grounds is a proposal in Slovakia to ban disposables, which forms part of the same amendment that would also limit flavours to menthol, mint and tobacco. ECigIntelligence predicts this will pass, though – as is the case with all of these bills – and in many ways the market is already moving on.
Already a wave of disposable-like e-cigarette devices have hit the market, with features that meet the word of law (for example, replaceable batteries or ports to refill e-liquids) but are made from the same cheaper material as their disposable predecessors, and, in some cases, lack aspects to render them fully reusable (such as not having access to replace the cartomiser).
Expect action on advertising, labelling and packaging
But many jurisdictions appear to be keen to bring in the disposables ban as part of a wider range of corrective measures – generally to combat the spectre of increased youth vaping. In New Zealand, for example, the proposed ban on disposables would also increase fines for sales to under-18s, reduce the visibility of vaping products in retail locations, and place more limits on where vaping retailers can be located.
In Ireland, the disposables ban proposal would also prohibit point-of-sale display and advertising in non-vape specialist shops. It would prevent colours or imagery on packaging, stop flavour descriptors and language (assuming the non-tobacco flavour ban did not go through), and outlaw devices resembling or functioning as other products such as toys and games.
Meanwhile, both the UK and Spain could bring in some form of similar advertising or packaging restrictions as part of their wider rafts of legislation. The UK has its broad plans for limitations on advertising and display, including packaging restrictions, as part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, while in Spain there is a proposal to impose neutral packaging requirements, something the wider EU will also consider as part of its TPD revision.
Further afield, Indonesia is considering applying plain packaging as well as further labelling requirements to tobacco products and all novel nicotine products – as part of the overall measure “Government Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia 28/2024 concerning Implementing Regulations of Law 17/2023 concerning Health”.
ECigIntelligence predicts the measure will pass, though there is still some question about plain packaging specifically. The tobacco industry maintains strong leverage in the country, and there has been considerable backlash from industry sources over it. This has led to the minister of health saying officials would review the provisions with business partners.
And in Costa Rica, the bill amending law 10066/21 would add labelling language requirements, expand advertising restrictions – such as prohibiting the use of influencers – and limit available retail channels in addition to the plan to prohibit flavours there.
Good news, bad news, but the market should be up overall
The good news is that despite this overall increase in regulation, the global vaping market is still predicted to grow in 2025. The bad news is that growth is going to slow down significantly again in comparison to previous post-Covid 19 yearly increases.
For 2025, ECigIntelligence currently predicts a $33.5bn market value – up from $31.7bn in 2024. This increase of less than $2bn will be the smallest increase in the last five years. It is driven by slow growth across major markets, with particularly slow showings expected in countries such as France, Germany, Canada and China.
Despite this, the vaping market is predicted to stay ahead of heated tobacco for at least another year – though the gap continues to narrow.
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